A powerful El Niño developing across the Pacific could contribute to hundreds of thousands of additional heat-related deaths worldwide, according to a new analysis that is raising concerns about the human cost of extreme temperatures.
Researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur globally between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with what would be expected during the same months of an average year. The figure is a projection—not a count of deaths that have already occurred.
Extreme Heat Could Hit Vulnerable Nations Hardest
The report, titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño,” warns that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest on record.
Researchers project 44 percent more extremely hot days than would normally be expected as the weather pattern pushes global land temperatures higher.
Some of the greatest projected impacts are concentrated in developing countries. During the six-month period from September 2026 through February 2027, researchers estimate Nigeria could experience approximately 31,400 additional heat deaths, while Indonesia could see about 19,300. Sudan, India and Brazil are also among the countries projected to experience significant increases in heat-related mortality.
The United States is not excluded from the danger. Researchers project approximately 3,500 additional heat-related deaths in the U.S. during the period analyzed.
Researchers Say Lives Can Still Be Saved
The study does not present the projected death toll as inevitable. Researchers say targeted intervention—including heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, protections for outdoor workers and increased health-care capacity—could reduce mortality.
The projections combine research examining the relationship between temperature and mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide with seasonal temperature forecasts. Researchers compared projected deaths with conditions during an average year from 1996 through 2025.
The Climate Impact Lab also plans to update its projections as the 2026–27 El Niño develops, meaning the estimates could change as additional temperature data become available.
For communities already struggling with extreme heat, limited access to cooling and strained health systems, the report’s central message is urgent: preparation before temperatures reach their most dangerous levels could save lives.
Sources
University of Chicago — Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth: “More than 451,000 Heat Deaths Projected from Super El Niño,” September 22, 2026.
University of Chicago report and announcement
Reuters: “‘Super’ El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths, researchers say,” September 23, 2026.
Reuters reporting
UC Berkeley: “El Niño heat could claim 451,000 lives this year,” September 23, 2026.
UC Berkeley report coverage
CBS News: “El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat-related deaths compared to normal year, group says,” September 23, 2026.
CBS News coverage
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any decisions. Source: Christian News & Investigative Reports (CNIR) — cnirbc.com Reporting the headline. Investigating the facts
